NakamuraOver and Under: Yusei Kikuchi
"Over and Under" is one of the segments in my blog. Once a week, I write an analysis on one major league player and tell you whether he is over or under rated. However, this week's edition is special. I present to you Japanese Pitcher Yusei Kikuchi:
There have been reports that Japanese hurler Yusei Kikuchi may be going to the major leagues this off season. But nowadays, there are two, three, sometimes even four Japanese stars making that transition every year. So the same question that was asked to Nomo, Ichiro, Matsuzaka, and Matsui will be asked yet again. What makes Yusei Kikuchi special? The answer is simple. He is only 18 years old. This man is the equivalent of the Japanese Stephen Strasburg or Bryce Harper. Daisuke made his MLB debut at the young age of 26. Junichi Tazawa, the newest Red Sox import, made an impact at only 23 years of age. But Yusei has never performed on the level of Matsuzaka in Japan. That's for certain. But if he chooses to go to the major leagues right after high school, the acquiring of international players will change like never before and the consequences would last forever. The distance between small market and large market teams will expand like never before.
There's several things that make Yusei stand out. The simplest being that he's a lefty. There are very few dominant lefty starters in the game. There's Johan Santana, Jon Lester and CC Sabathia. Not many names, considering there used to be people like Tom Glavine and Randy Johnson on that list 10 years ago. With a fastball reaching the mid-90s, he resembles a young(er) Scott Kazmir and possesses the same potential when he was in the New York farm system. There are very few lefty fireballers and Yusei might (and possibly could) be that ace or #2 pitcher that every general manager drools over. Most of baseball's best hitters are left handed. The top two leaders in batting average (Joe Mauer and Ichiro Suzuki) are both left handed and five of the top 8 leaders in home runs (Fielder, Howard, Gonzalez, Pena and Dunn) are left handed. For one team, a lefty ace could be the solution to all those people. And as if all of that's not enough to get him a job, this year's market is perfect for him. There's only 3 type B lefty starters; absolutely no type A's. There's never been a better time to be an unproven lefty with extreme amount of potential.
Most Japanese pitchers have a distinct windup as a weapon. Think about it for a second; when was the last time you saw a Japanese pitcher without some sort of odd alteration? Hideo Nomo's delivery was more insane than Tim Lincecum's. Daisuke has about 18 steps inside his delivery, each move being performed like he's a mechanical machine. But Yusei has none of that. It's a short, smooth delivery, rather similar to the one of Al Leiter's back in the day. Unlike Igawa, there's no pause after the leg goes up. He throws the ball so quick, it seems like he's throwing from the stretch all the time. He is definitely a different pitcher by Japanese and American standards. He throws like a pitcher from the 70's or 80's.
Finally, the most obvious difference in Kikuchi, his age. 18 years old, and going to pitch in the major leagues? My expectation would be that he signs a minor league contract, but he might be able to work something out. With the amount of teams interested, he might require that he is on the 40 man roster for all of September unless he is on the DL. These past four or five years has been a dramatic change in the business of baseball. More teams are looking to get a younger team and focusing on the draft. Not many teams are biting on the big free agents anymore. The process would take a huge step forward if somebody signs an 18 year old pitcher.
But why so young? Couldn't the GMs wait a few years to see how he pans out? The answer is simple. There might not be a few years. Japanese people love to over work. Their work ethic is amazing. In high school, there's practice in the morning and afternoon. And by morning, I mean you start at 5 am. And by afternoon, I mean you end at 9pm. They work trying to reach the impossible, to finely tune each skill there is. There is no such thing as an off season. You don't get time off.
The 6 hours of sleep they get every night is considered their rest between starts. Pitch counts are non existent. Yusei may be 18, but he's probably thrown as many pitches as Adam Wainwright in his life. When Matsuzaka was in high school, he nailed his spot as the first overall pick over a four day span. It also involved 500 pitches. MLB starters occasionally throw that many in one month, Daisuke did it in 4 days. And it's not like Daisuke's the only one to ever do that. Most high school aces go through a training regimen like this. Yusei probably faced the same treatment.
GM of the Athletics, Billy Beane once said he doesn't like drafting players out of high school because they are unproven and may face trouble when they are under pressure for the first time. Granted, Kikuchi has only had success at the high school level, but there's plenty of pressure there. High School ball is nothing like it is here. They are all given the opportunity to prove themselves to everybody in the land of the rising sun. The high school tournament is like the Rose Bowl or March Madness. It gets attention, it's watched by fans and scouts and it's definitely a high pressure situation.
There's no question that this man is underrated. Most of you probably have never even heard of him before reading this article. He's one of the best pitchers in the world that's not getting paid for his services. But once the bidding war is on, all of that will change. People will know his name and he will gain his fame. But until then, he's underrated.
So what teams will sign him? The Red Sox, Dodgers, Rangers, Giants, Yankees, Mets and Mariners have talked to him. Money aside, the Red Sox and Mariners would be prime targets due to the success of Japanese players there. I can't see the Giants getting a deal done when so many teams with more recent success and money are in the same pursuit. The Mets may have some trouble with the front office this year. If they can get that sorted out in time, they'll be in the hunt for gold. Yusei is no Daisuke so he won't get an offer that involves more than 100 million dollars.
Amongst those teams, the Red Sox, Yankees and Rangers are the prime candidates. The Dodgers might have some money lying around due to Manny's suspensions, but it won't be enough to cover Yusei fully. They'll need a little more money, and they probably also want a pitcher for next year right away.
The Mariners would need a "hometown" discount and some influence from Kenji Johjima. But kind of like how they bailed out on Akinori Iwamura, they won't go all in. The Mariners got off to a good start this year so the management probably think the team is going somewhere. I expect them to go after at least 2 type B free agents this off season.
So it's either the Red Sox, Rangers or the Yankees. They each have their own traits for Yusei to want to go there. And they each have what it takes to get him. The Rangers are now being run mostly by Nolan Ryan. The decision on Yusei is mostly in his hands. Ryan has done an amazing job turning around the pitching in Texas and it won't go unnoticed. The Yankees have had success with Hideki Matsui. The crash from Igawa and the home runs in right field are discouraging, but the Yankees have money to cover that. If the Yankees win the world series this year, it'll be even more reason for Yusei to visit the Bronx. And finally, the Boston Red Sox. Matsuzaka, Okajima, and Hideo Nomo have all been great pitchers for Boston. This was the reason why Tazawa went to Boston. But at the moment, Yusei has made no comment on which team he wants to go to, so it's still unclear who's out in front. Hell, for all we know, he might play for a team in Japan.
-Written by: Nakamura. This article is copyrighted © by Nakamura and may not be reproduced, recopied, or used in any form without permission from Nakamura
There have been reports that Japanese hurler Yusei Kikuchi may be going to the major leagues this off season. But nowadays, there are two, three, sometimes even four Japanese stars making that transition every year. So the same question that was asked to Nomo, Ichiro, Matsuzaka, and Matsui will be asked yet again. What makes Yusei Kikuchi special? The answer is simple. He is only 18 years old. This man is the equivalent of the Japanese Stephen Strasburg or Bryce Harper. Daisuke made his MLB debut at the young age of 26. Junichi Tazawa, the newest Red Sox import, made an impact at only 23 years of age. But Yusei has never performed on the level of Matsuzaka in Japan. That's for certain. But if he chooses to go to the major leagues right after high school, the acquiring of international players will change like never before and the consequences would last forever. The distance between small market and large market teams will expand like never before.
There's several things that make Yusei stand out. The simplest being that he's a lefty. There are very few dominant lefty starters in the game. There's Johan Santana, Jon Lester and CC Sabathia. Not many names, considering there used to be people like Tom Glavine and Randy Johnson on that list 10 years ago. With a fastball reaching the mid-90s, he resembles a young(er) Scott Kazmir and possesses the same potential when he was in the New York farm system. There are very few lefty fireballers and Yusei might (and possibly could) be that ace or #2 pitcher that every general manager drools over. Most of baseball's best hitters are left handed. The top two leaders in batting average (Joe Mauer and Ichiro Suzuki) are both left handed and five of the top 8 leaders in home runs (Fielder, Howard, Gonzalez, Pena and Dunn) are left handed. For one team, a lefty ace could be the solution to all those people. And as if all of that's not enough to get him a job, this year's market is perfect for him. There's only 3 type B lefty starters; absolutely no type A's. There's never been a better time to be an unproven lefty with extreme amount of potential.
Most Japanese pitchers have a distinct windup as a weapon. Think about it for a second; when was the last time you saw a Japanese pitcher without some sort of odd alteration? Hideo Nomo's delivery was more insane than Tim Lincecum's. Daisuke has about 18 steps inside his delivery, each move being performed like he's a mechanical machine. But Yusei has none of that. It's a short, smooth delivery, rather similar to the one of Al Leiter's back in the day. Unlike Igawa, there's no pause after the leg goes up. He throws the ball so quick, it seems like he's throwing from the stretch all the time. He is definitely a different pitcher by Japanese and American standards. He throws like a pitcher from the 70's or 80's.
Finally, the most obvious difference in Kikuchi, his age. 18 years old, and going to pitch in the major leagues? My expectation would be that he signs a minor league contract, but he might be able to work something out. With the amount of teams interested, he might require that he is on the 40 man roster for all of September unless he is on the DL. These past four or five years has been a dramatic change in the business of baseball. More teams are looking to get a younger team and focusing on the draft. Not many teams are biting on the big free agents anymore. The process would take a huge step forward if somebody signs an 18 year old pitcher.
But why so young? Couldn't the GMs wait a few years to see how he pans out? The answer is simple. There might not be a few years. Japanese people love to over work. Their work ethic is amazing. In high school, there's practice in the morning and afternoon. And by morning, I mean you start at 5 am. And by afternoon, I mean you end at 9pm. They work trying to reach the impossible, to finely tune each skill there is. There is no such thing as an off season. You don't get time off.
Yusei Kikuchi just might be the next Japanese star to pitch in America
GM of the Athletics, Billy Beane once said he doesn't like drafting players out of high school because they are unproven and may face trouble when they are under pressure for the first time. Granted, Kikuchi has only had success at the high school level, but there's plenty of pressure there. High School ball is nothing like it is here. They are all given the opportunity to prove themselves to everybody in the land of the rising sun. The high school tournament is like the Rose Bowl or March Madness. It gets attention, it's watched by fans and scouts and it's definitely a high pressure situation.
There's no question that this man is underrated. Most of you probably have never even heard of him before reading this article. He's one of the best pitchers in the world that's not getting paid for his services. But once the bidding war is on, all of that will change. People will know his name and he will gain his fame. But until then, he's underrated.
So what teams will sign him? The Red Sox, Dodgers, Rangers, Giants, Yankees, Mets and Mariners have talked to him. Money aside, the Red Sox and Mariners would be prime targets due to the success of Japanese players there. I can't see the Giants getting a deal done when so many teams with more recent success and money are in the same pursuit. The Mets may have some trouble with the front office this year. If they can get that sorted out in time, they'll be in the hunt for gold. Yusei is no Daisuke so he won't get an offer that involves more than 100 million dollars.
Amongst those teams, the Red Sox, Yankees and Rangers are the prime candidates. The Dodgers might have some money lying around due to Manny's suspensions, but it won't be enough to cover Yusei fully. They'll need a little more money, and they probably also want a pitcher for next year right away.
Where will he land?
So it's either the Red Sox, Rangers or the Yankees. They each have their own traits for Yusei to want to go there. And they each have what it takes to get him. The Rangers are now being run mostly by Nolan Ryan. The decision on Yusei is mostly in his hands. Ryan has done an amazing job turning around the pitching in Texas and it won't go unnoticed. The Yankees have had success with Hideki Matsui. The crash from Igawa and the home runs in right field are discouraging, but the Yankees have money to cover that. If the Yankees win the world series this year, it'll be even more reason for Yusei to visit the Bronx. And finally, the Boston Red Sox. Matsuzaka, Okajima, and Hideo Nomo have all been great pitchers for Boston. This was the reason why Tazawa went to Boston. But at the moment, Yusei has made no comment on which team he wants to go to, so it's still unclear who's out in front. Hell, for all we know, he might play for a team in Japan.
-Written by: Nakamura. This article is copyrighted © by Nakamura and may not be reproduced, recopied, or used in any form without permission from Nakamura
-Sincerely,
Morgan
-Sincerely,
Morgan
Baseball Author
Tech Poke
Writing Edition
Anything or Everything?
I highly doubt the Indians will be in the hunt for Yusei. He's leaving high school and is seeking immediate success and with options like the Yankees, Dodgers and Red Sox with teams that are looking strong like Giants, Rangers and Giants, Mariners, there'll be no room for teams like Cleveland. They would have to throw a lot of money at him and if you're up against the Yankees, it's tough to win a bidding war.
Thanks for your comment and I hope you read some more of my posts soon! Next OVER AND UNDER will be Alex Rodriguez, STAY TUNED!
Nakamura
ROCKIES FAN
Baseball Author
Tech Poke
Writing Edition
Anything or Everything?
I'm sorry this wasn't your year. But with the amazing come back to catch up to the Dodgers, I highly doubt that anybody would call the 09 season a failure.
On the other hand, I too dislike mlbtraderumors. I think its a bogus site with misleading facts. And unfortunately, Yusei has decided to stay in Japan for the time being as well.