NakamuraOff season Outlook: Roy Halladay
LET THE RUMORS FLY! Roy Halladay, long time Blue Jay ace, is once again on the block. When he is not the center of attention due to potential trades, Roy Halladay finds the time to be one of the most dominant pitchers in the game. The six time all star and former Cy Young award winner is bound to attract multiple customers. However, there are a few questions. Who wants Halladay and how far are they willing to go? Let's take a look at which GM is willing to go all in.
Blue Jays
What exactly do the Blue Jays want? New GM Alex Anthopoulos has a lot of questions to answer with these rumors. Since this is Anthopoulos' first year as general manager, this move will determine whether or not Canada loves him. If he screws this up, his stay will be short and brief. With that in mind, you know he is going to ask for a lot. Unlike the Twins, he cannot "settle" for anything. The Twins could settle with Johan Santana because they already had more options. They had a thriving Liriano with Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau to back him up.
Their future was already bright to begin with. But the Blue Jays are staring into a dark alley. After allowing Alexis Rios to just walk away without gaining any prospects, their future looks terrible. Only three of their players made Baseball America's top 100 prospects list. And only one was in the top 30. As promising Travis Snider is, they need more. Roy Halladay can get at least two more prospects within the top 30. If the Blue Jays get any fewer than two top prospects out of a four player package, then they got the bottom hand of the deal. They need to come through on this deal, big time.
Boston Red Sox
It has already been reported that GM Theo Epstein is interested in Doc Halladay. Unlike most teams, he has the farm system to get him. But Theo has never gone all in. With Johan Santana, he only offered Ellsbury or Lester - never both. Don't expect this situation to be much different. The Red Sox have a starting rotation that seems more complete than it was three years ago. With Beckett, Lester, Matsuzaka, Buchholz and Wakefield, there is no need to force a trade. But the Blue Jays still won't settle and they will seek these players:
Clay Buchholz - We all know this name. He's the dominant pitcher that has ruled AAA
Pawtucket. He's the man who threw a no-hitter in only his second MLB start. He's the man that Epstein wouldn't even consider offering for Santana. If Theo offers Buchholz, the rest of the package will be thin. After Clay proved himself as a starter last season, his price is higher than ever.
Casey Kelly - This one is interesting. Casey Kelly is the top prospect of the Red Sox and can play both shortstop and pitcher. He has shown signs of possible success in both positions. He hit .344 in Lowell, but also posted an ERA of 2.32. He is now the top prospect in the
organization, so he probably won't be in a deal along side Buchholz.
Michael Bowden - A young right hander that has only shown success in the minor league level. Like Buchholz, he struggled when he first came up to the Bigs. However, he has shown no signs of being the ace that people saw in Clay. Buchholz is supposed to be an ace, the best pitcher the Sox drafted since Roger Clemens. Bowden is projected to be a solid #2 or #3 starter. Bowden will likely be in an offer, but he won't be the main attraction.
Jed Lowrie - A switch hitting shortstop out of Stanford, Jed is the shortstop the Red Sox have been waiting for. The Sox hope that Jed will be the one to fill in the hole that Nomar Garciaparra left when he was traded. But they are also willing to live with that hole for one more year if it means that Halladay dominates the hill. Jed Lowrie will definitely be a part of a deal offered.
More: Josh Reddick, Lars Anderson, Jose Iglesias, Junichi Tazawa, Ryan Kalish
Predicted Offer: Casey Kelly, Jed Lowrie and Josh Reddick
Predicted Requested offer: Clay Buchholz, Casey Kelly, Daniel Bard and Lars Anderson
Predicted Outcome: The Sox say "No Way". The Red Sox have a lot to offer, but the Blue Jays have no leverage to force a trade.
New York Yankees:
Roy Halladay has already stated that he would waive the no trade clause if it meant he would pitch in pin stripes. But unlike the Sox, the Yankees do not have such a deep farm system. Sure, they have a couple standouts, but none of them match the total potential value that the Red Sox have. But they do have one thing in common with them. They also have no need to force the trade. With CC and Burnett as their 1-2 punch, there is no need for an ace. But knowing the Yankees, they'll be a contender.
Austin Jackson - Jackson hit .300 last season and is the Yankees top prospect. An outfielder with solid speed, he is the one the Jays are after. They probably hope for him to be the next
Vernon Wells. He hits for average now, but he might develop into a Curtis Granderson type of player.
Jesus Montero - This guy can hit. He ripped the ball last season with a .337 average. He is also a catcher, a tough position to replace. However, with Jorge Posada edging towards retirement, the Yankees need a long term replacement. If he is part of a deal, there won't be much more offered. If Jesus is offered, then it will probably only be a 2 or 3 player package.
Joba Chamberlain - A once highly viewed pitcher, Joba can still be considered a prospect. We've only seen glimpses of what might turn out to be an ace. Even with ridiculous rules on pitch counts and whatnot, the fact remains. Joba has some nasty stuff. But so does Miguel Batista. Only time will tell if Chamberlain is all talk. But for now, his prospect potential value is high.
Phil Hughes - Hughes was amazing for the Yankees this season. He was the reliable reliever between the starter and Mariano. And with a season like that, it is unlikely that the Yankees will
give him up easily. But the Yankees have to make a decision with him as well. Hughes can be a starter or a reliever. They screwed up with Joba, so what do you do with Hughes?
Brett Gardner - Easily the fastest man on the Yankees roster. Gardner earned a starting spot on Opening day, but lost it soon after. He is still very young, but his defense is not very good. He's not the talented hitter that Jackson or Montero is. But speed kills, and his speed is the reason why Gardner has made it to a major league roster.
More: Melky Cabrera, Andrew Brackman
Predicted Offer: Joba Chamberlain, Brett Gardner and Andrew Brackman
Predicted Requested Offer: Austin Jackson, Jesus Montero, and Phil Hughes
Predicted Outcome: Blue Jays ultimately can't settle. Unlike Epstein, Cashman has wiggled around a bit more in big time trades. After being told no to his offer, Cashman will likely sweeten the pot a bit without giving in too much. However, he won't be willing to give up his two top prospects as well as his top young pitcher. That's just too much for even the Yankees to lose. Notice how most of the people the Jays will pursue are already in the Major Leagues. So if they cannot guarantee that they will stay long term, the possibilities of Halladay pitching in a Yankee uniform go way down.
Okay, that's it for part one. Look for part 2 later. I'm just going to hope that Halladay isn't dealt while I'm still working on it.
-Written by: Nakamura. This article is copyrighted © by Nakamura and may not be reproduced, recopied, or used in any form without permission from Nakamura
Blue Jays
What exactly do the Blue Jays want? New GM Alex Anthopoulos has a lot of questions to answer with these rumors. Since this is Anthopoulos' first year as general manager, this move will determine whether or not Canada loves him. If he screws this up, his stay will be short and brief. With that in mind, you know he is going to ask for a lot. Unlike the Twins, he cannot "settle" for anything. The Twins could settle with Johan Santana because they already had more options. They had a thriving Liriano with Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau to back him up.
Roy Halladay
Boston Red Sox
It has already been reported that GM Theo Epstein is interested in Doc Halladay. Unlike most teams, he has the farm system to get him. But Theo has never gone all in. With Johan Santana, he only offered Ellsbury or Lester - never both. Don't expect this situation to be much different. The Red Sox have a starting rotation that seems more complete than it was three years ago. With Beckett, Lester, Matsuzaka, Buchholz and Wakefield, there is no need to force a trade. But the Blue Jays still won't settle and they will seek these players:
Clay Buchholz - We all know this name. He's the dominant pitcher that has ruled AAA
Clay Buchholz
Casey Kelly - This one is interesting. Casey Kelly is the top prospect of the Red Sox and can play both shortstop and pitcher. He has shown signs of possible success in both positions. He hit .344 in Lowell, but also posted an ERA of 2.32. He is now the top prospect in the
Casey Kelly
Michael Bowden - A young right hander that has only shown success in the minor league level. Like Buchholz, he struggled when he first came up to the Bigs. However, he has shown no signs of being the ace that people saw in Clay. Buchholz is supposed to be an ace, the best pitcher the Sox drafted since Roger Clemens. Bowden is projected to be a solid #2 or #3 starter. Bowden will likely be in an offer, but he won't be the main attraction.
Jed Lowrie - A switch hitting shortstop out of Stanford, Jed is the shortstop the Red Sox have been waiting for. The Sox hope that Jed will be the one to fill in the hole that Nomar Garciaparra left when he was traded. But they are also willing to live with that hole for one more year if it means that Halladay dominates the hill. Jed Lowrie will definitely be a part of a deal offered.
More: Josh Reddick, Lars Anderson, Jose Iglesias, Junichi Tazawa, Ryan Kalish
Predicted Offer: Casey Kelly, Jed Lowrie and Josh Reddick
Predicted Requested offer: Clay Buchholz, Casey Kelly, Daniel Bard and Lars Anderson
Predicted Outcome: The Sox say "No Way". The Red Sox have a lot to offer, but the Blue Jays have no leverage to force a trade.
Red Sox GM Theo Epstein
New York Yankees:
Roy Halladay has already stated that he would waive the no trade clause if it meant he would pitch in pin stripes. But unlike the Sox, the Yankees do not have such a deep farm system. Sure, they have a couple standouts, but none of them match the total potential value that the Red Sox have. But they do have one thing in common with them. They also have no need to force the trade. With CC and Burnett as their 1-2 punch, there is no need for an ace. But knowing the Yankees, they'll be a contender.
Austin Jackson - Jackson hit .300 last season and is the Yankees top prospect. An outfielder with solid speed, he is the one the Jays are after. They probably hope for him to be the next
Austin Jackson
Jesus Montero - This guy can hit. He ripped the ball last season with a .337 average. He is also a catcher, a tough position to replace. However, with Jorge Posada edging towards retirement, the Yankees need a long term replacement. If he is part of a deal, there won't be much more offered. If Jesus is offered, then it will probably only be a 2 or 3 player package.
Joba Chamberlain - A once highly viewed pitcher, Joba can still be considered a prospect. We've only seen glimpses of what might turn out to be an ace. Even with ridiculous rules on pitch counts and whatnot, the fact remains. Joba has some nasty stuff. But so does Miguel Batista. Only time will tell if Chamberlain is all talk. But for now, his prospect potential value is high.
Phil Hughes - Hughes was amazing for the Yankees this season. He was the reliable reliever between the starter and Mariano. And with a season like that, it is unlikely that the Yankees will
Phil Hughes
Brett Gardner - Easily the fastest man on the Yankees roster. Gardner earned a starting spot on Opening day, but lost it soon after. He is still very young, but his defense is not very good. He's not the talented hitter that Jackson or Montero is. But speed kills, and his speed is the reason why Gardner has made it to a major league roster.
More: Melky Cabrera, Andrew Brackman
Predicted Offer: Joba Chamberlain, Brett Gardner and Andrew Brackman
Predicted Requested Offer: Austin Jackson, Jesus Montero, and Phil Hughes
Predicted Outcome: Blue Jays ultimately can't settle. Unlike Epstein, Cashman has wiggled around a bit more in big time trades. After being told no to his offer, Cashman will likely sweeten the pot a bit without giving in too much. However, he won't be willing to give up his two top prospects as well as his top young pitcher. That's just too much for even the Yankees to lose. Notice how most of the people the Jays will pursue are already in the Major Leagues. So if they cannot guarantee that they will stay long term, the possibilities of Halladay pitching in a Yankee uniform go way down.
Okay, that's it for part one. Look for part 2 later. I'm just going to hope that Halladay isn't dealt while I'm still working on it.
-Written by: Nakamura. This article is copyrighted © by Nakamura and may not be reproduced, recopied, or used in any form without permission from Nakamura
