NakamuraOff Season Outlook: Free Agents
With the Yankees winning the World Series, you know the Red Sox want to retaliate. When the Mets and Cubs crumble and fall like a rock, you know they want to come back. With the NL West getting more and more interesting each year, something big will happen. This is the Off Season Outlook, courtesy of Hank. Enjoy.
1. Matt Holliday - There are a few teams that could desperately use his bat in the middle
of their lineup and he is clearly the best bat out there this winter. The Mets and Red Sox look like favorites along with his previous team the Cardinals, but the market seems quite weak. The Giants, Angels, and a Yankees all have been linked to Holliday, but none seem likely.
Hank: Matt Holliday will sign with the Mets; they had an awful year and need to get their fans a Christmas present
Nakamura: Matt Holliday is a client of the devil of baseball, Scott Boras. One of Boras' techniques is to wait until a good deal comes across, make the enemy come to him. The Mets have a lot of holes to fill in and cannot afford to miss one of their other targets because they are so focused on Holliday. They may make an offer similar to the one the Yankees made last year for Teixeira. A "here's an offer, we'll leave it on the table, you get back to us if you like it" type of offer. Holliday will go to the Angels to fill in the void of Vlad Guerrero.
2. Jason Bay - The market for Bay seems similar to the one for Holliday; they are similar players and the two best hitters available this winter. That said, a few more teams might come
calling for Bay since his price will most likely be lower. Whoever loses out on Holliday should go after Bay; including the Red Sox, who already made an offer, the Mets, and a few others. Hank: Jason Bay will sign with the Red Sox, they cannot afford to lose another bat in their lineup.
Nakamura: Jason Bay loves Boston and so does his family. The fans have grown close to him and I cannot see Bay wanting to play for any team other than the Red Sox.
3. John Lackey - Lackey may have the most options of any free agent out there; he’s the best pitcher out there and everyone needs pitching. Lackey has been linked to the Yankees, Mets, Brewers, Orioles, and Red Sox. One team missing is the Angels, they seem fine with letting him go, but you have to wonder if it will be that easy for the Angels. John Lackey will sign with the Yankees. The Yankees will most likely non-tender Wang, meaning they will need another starter.
Hank: We all know the Yankees go for the best and who wouldn’t want to sign with the former champions. If you can’t beat ‘em join ‘em. Lackey will join the Yankees.
Nakamura: Lackey is an interesting case. The Red Sox don't need in ace because they have Beckett, Lester, Dice-k, Buchholz and Wakefield locked up for next season. The Yankees don't need one because they have CC, AJ, Pettite and Joba with the 5th spot up in the air for Hughes and Wang among others. The Angels got Kazmir last year so that they have leverage against signing Lackey. Lackey will go to a smaller market team like the Mariners or the Dodgers.
4. Chone Figgins - Figgins is another hot free agent thanks to his great defense and speed. It is not easy to find a guy like him and many teams will be interested in him. The
Angels, Orioles, White Sox, Mariners, Mets and Phillies have all been mentioned in the Figgins sweepstakes. The Phillies seem interesting, but they don’t seem as interested as others since they already have two top of the lineup hitters and aren’t too inclined to spend big bucks.
Hank: Chone Figgins will sign with the Angels. While the Angels will lose a lot of firepower, they cannot afford to lose the heart and soul of their team.
Nakamura: Figgins will most likely go to a National League team where his speed will be more valuable. He may go the an AL team if it is run by a manager that utilizes small ball (Mike Scioscia) Figgins will go to the Cardinals. Without Glaus, they lack a solid 3B and there are holes in the outfield with Holliday on the move.
5. Aroldis Chapman - A very very interesting pitcher this offseason. He is a 21 year old lefty who throws 100 mph… not much else to say. The only problem is he is either a hit or miss. He will either or a total waste. It all depends on whether he can learn to locate pitches at a major league level. Large market teams will be able to take this chance. Three teams that seem
possible include the Red Sox, Yankees, and Mets. It is hard to read this situation, but it will come down to who feels it is less of a risk and will pony up the big bucks. It will either be the Yanks or Sox.
Hank: Chapman will sign with the Red Sox, the Yankees won’t be willing to sign two big free agent starters.
Nakamura: The Sox have developed a reputation of being successful in making young players reach their potential. This was one reason why Tazawa signed with them. Chapman knows this information as well. Chapman will go to the Sox, one of the few teams that constantly risk the low-risk high-reward bargains.
6. Randy Wolf - A very good lefty starter. He will have many suitors this off season after a good year with the Dodgers. His suitors include the Mets, Diamondbacks, Phillies, Dodgers, Red Sox, Brewers and any other team that needs a lefty starter. At first I thought he would bolt back to the Phillies where he pitched most of his career, but the Phillies already have 3 lefty starters in their rotation for next year (Lee, Hamels, Happ).
Hank: Randy Wolf will sign with the Mets. The Mets need a lot of things, including pitching, Wolf has pitched in the NL East before and will be a solid number two behind Santana.
Nakamura: Randy Wolf will go to a team that is willing to offer a long term deal. If a team is looking for a short term rental, they'll go after Andy Pettite as their lefty starter. Wolf will be in a Dodger uniform once again. The Dodgers looked like a great team early on in the season, but broke apart due to lack of pitching and Manny being Manny.
7. Andy Pettitte - Pettitte had a great year and amazing postseason for the Yankees.
Hank: It seems simple; Yankees or retirement. Pettitte still has a year or two left in his arm and the Yankees could use him, he will sign with the Yankees.
Nakamura: Teams will be after his experience and ability, but the New York is his home.
8. Rich Harden - Harden’s market hasn’t really shown yet, but it seems vast. All teams need pitching and Harden may be cheap. Lots of teams seem to be interested including the Cubs, Twins, Red Sox, Phillies, Mariners, Nationals, and any other pitching needy team. The prediction on Harden seems difficult; it will all depend on where Lackey, Wolf, and the other top starters go.
Hank: Rich Harden will sign with the Mariners. They need some more pitching and have
money to spend this offseason.
Nakamura: A born Canadian, he may want to be close to home. If Seattle is willing to offer a contract longer than 3 years, it's almost a sure Mariner. The ball is in Safeco and its up to them to make a move. The larger market teams will be busy with Lackey so Seattle will want to establish this deal quickly. Otherwise, the teams who lose on the Lackey sweepstakes will go after Harden and drive the price up.
9. Jose Valverde - There are a lot of closers available this offseason, but Valverde is the best of them and will get a good offer somewhere. The Astros, Tigers, Phillies, and Rays have shown interest.
Hank: Jose Valverde will sign with the Astros. Everything I’ve read has shown the Astros priority as their bullpen, which includes resigning Valverde and Hawkins.
Nakamura: The Tigers won't make any big signings because they want to dump salary elsewhere. Every team wants bullpen help, including the Yankees. If Valverde is willing to be a setup man, he will be a Yankee come opening day. If not, then he will be a Tampa Bay Ray. Troy Percival was a liability and pitcher and Wheeler just doesn't have the stuff to be a ninth inning specialist.
10. Adrian Beltre - Last time Beltre was a free agent he got a huge deal, but he won’t this time. He will have to pick his team wisely. His possible suitors will become evident later into free agency, but one team that seems to fit are the Twins. They upgraded at short already with Hardy and could greatly improve their left side power with Beltre too.
Hank: Adrian Beltre will sign with the Twins.
Nakamura: I don't know what Hank's saying. One thing is for sure. Mauer will be a Free Agent next season and will be QUITE expensive. Like the Marlins did with Hanley Ramirez, the Twins need to save up. They won't make any signing over 4 million this off season. Beltre may have to wait longer than most to see an opening at 3B. The Angels make the most sense. Out of everyone in the Free Agent market, Figgins' defense at 3B can only be replaced by Beltre. Plus, Adrian's bat will replace Vlad Guerrero's at the same time.
11. Vlad Guerrero - It seems likely that The Angels won’t even make an offer to their star, Guerrero. They don’t have that much money and will need to resign others like Figgins. Guerrero will have to sign with the AL though. Two teams that seem likely are the Orioles and
White Sox. The White Sox will lose on the Figgins bidding and go For Guerrero instead.
Hank: Guerrero will sign with the White Sox will love having his bat at DH every day.
Nakamura: Guerrero may become the player that will only signed at the right price. Don't expect a legit offer any time soon. He will go the Orioles, but the signing won't be official until Spring Training.
12. Johnny Damon - Johnny would like to come back to the Yankees, but it is unclear whether he will be brought back. If the Yankees let him go to the open market, it will be interesting to see who offers him a contract, probably not the Red Sox.
Hank: That said the Yankees probably wouldn’t go after the two big name left fielders, leaving them with Damon. Damon will sign with the Yankees for another wonderful year of a wet noodle arm in left.
Nakamura: Johnny Damon is a type A so it will be interesting to see if the Yankees offer him arbitration. His agent is Scott Boras, so one year deals, including arbitration, are unlikely. But at the same time, the market for outfielders are thin. Arbitration may be accepted due to this market. But with outfielders like Carl Crawford hitting the market next year, things won't get easier for Boras in 2011. It all come down to whether or not the Yankees offer him arbitration.
13. Hideki Matsui - This is the hardest decision for the Yankees this offseason. He was World Series MVP and has been huge for them through out his career. He has never played for another American team and it would be odd to see him somewhere else. Its easy to say he will retire, but he can still hit.
Hank: Matsui will either retire or sign with an AL team that needs a bat, possibly the Orioles or White Sox.
Nakamura: Any team that is looking for a solid bat from the left side will want Matsui. He can hit for average, power and in clutch situations. His offers may not start rolling in until Christmas, but once they do, they'll come in boxes neatly wrapped with a bow. If the Cardinals lose on Figgins, Matsui will go there. He can replace Holliday and provide some protection for Pujols.
14. Orlando Hudson - A very good second basemen, fell off at the end of the year with the Dodgers and lost some playing time. He was a free agent last year and the market will be similar to it: weak. This time he will not end up on a winning team. Last year the Nationals wanted him, but Hudson will take what he can get.
Hank: He will sign with the Nationals as they try to upgrade up the middle.
Nakamura: The O-Dawg is a switch hitting gold glove award winner. If he is willing to play on the bench, EVERY contending team will want him. Also, if he can make a transition to SS, then even more teams will be interested. Look for the Red Sox on this one. If they can confirm that O-Dawg wants and will play SS at the level he has played 2B, he will be the SS until Lowrie/Kelly/Iglesias is ready.
15. Joel Piñeiro - A big part of the Cardinals rotation. The question is whether he will have the same type of year.
Hank: Any team that needs a solid back of the rotation starter may come calling, but in the end he will sign with the Cardinals. It would be a huge loss for them and without signing Holliday they will be able to pay him based on last years performance.
Nakamura: Piñeiro can keep the ball inside the park as well as anybody in the Major Leagues. He also has some experience as a reliever, so that will be an asset as well. Look for the Phillies to make a run for Piñeiro. In a hitter's ballpark, Piñeiro just might be the perfect #5 starter for them
This blog was written by HANK. (Except for Nakamura's predictions) Special thanks to HANK for writing this.
-Written by: HANK. This article is copyrighted © by Nakamura and may not be reproduced, recopied, or used in any form without permission from Nakamura
1. Matt Holliday - There are a few teams that could desperately use his bat in the middle
Matt Holliday
Nakamura: Matt Holliday is a client of the devil of baseball, Scott Boras. One of Boras' techniques is to wait until a good deal comes across, make the enemy come to him. The Mets have a lot of holes to fill in and cannot afford to miss one of their other targets because they are so focused on Holliday. They may make an offer similar to the one the Yankees made last year for Teixeira. A "here's an offer, we'll leave it on the table, you get back to us if you like it" type of offer. Holliday will go to the Angels to fill in the void of Vlad Guerrero.
2. Jason Bay - The market for Bay seems similar to the one for Holliday; they are similar players and the two best hitters available this winter. That said, a few more teams might come
Jason Bay
Nakamura: Jason Bay loves Boston and so does his family. The fans have grown close to him and I cannot see Bay wanting to play for any team other than the Red Sox.
3. John Lackey - Lackey may have the most options of any free agent out there; he’s the best pitcher out there and everyone needs pitching. Lackey has been linked to the Yankees, Mets, Brewers, Orioles, and Red Sox. One team missing is the Angels, they seem fine with letting him go, but you have to wonder if it will be that easy for the Angels. John Lackey will sign with the Yankees. The Yankees will most likely non-tender Wang, meaning they will need another starter.
John Lackey
Hank: We all know the Yankees go for the best and who wouldn’t want to sign with the former champions. If you can’t beat ‘em join ‘em. Lackey will join the Yankees.
Nakamura: Lackey is an interesting case. The Red Sox don't need in ace because they have Beckett, Lester, Dice-k, Buchholz and Wakefield locked up for next season. The Yankees don't need one because they have CC, AJ, Pettite and Joba with the 5th spot up in the air for Hughes and Wang among others. The Angels got Kazmir last year so that they have leverage against signing Lackey. Lackey will go to a smaller market team like the Mariners or the Dodgers.
4. Chone Figgins - Figgins is another hot free agent thanks to his great defense and speed. It is not easy to find a guy like him and many teams will be interested in him. The
Chone Figgins
Hank: Chone Figgins will sign with the Angels. While the Angels will lose a lot of firepower, they cannot afford to lose the heart and soul of their team.
Nakamura: Figgins will most likely go to a National League team where his speed will be more valuable. He may go the an AL team if it is run by a manager that utilizes small ball (Mike Scioscia) Figgins will go to the Cardinals. Without Glaus, they lack a solid 3B and there are holes in the outfield with Holliday on the move.
5. Aroldis Chapman - A very very interesting pitcher this offseason. He is a 21 year old lefty who throws 100 mph… not much else to say. The only problem is he is either a hit or miss. He will either or a total waste. It all depends on whether he can learn to locate pitches at a major league level. Large market teams will be able to take this chance. Three teams that seem
Chapman
Hank: Chapman will sign with the Red Sox, the Yankees won’t be willing to sign two big free agent starters.
Nakamura: The Sox have developed a reputation of being successful in making young players reach their potential. This was one reason why Tazawa signed with them. Chapman knows this information as well. Chapman will go to the Sox, one of the few teams that constantly risk the low-risk high-reward bargains.
6. Randy Wolf - A very good lefty starter. He will have many suitors this off season after a good year with the Dodgers. His suitors include the Mets, Diamondbacks, Phillies, Dodgers, Red Sox, Brewers and any other team that needs a lefty starter. At first I thought he would bolt back to the Phillies where he pitched most of his career, but the Phillies already have 3 lefty starters in their rotation for next year (Lee, Hamels, Happ).
Hank: Randy Wolf will sign with the Mets. The Mets need a lot of things, including pitching, Wolf has pitched in the NL East before and will be a solid number two behind Santana.
Nakamura: Randy Wolf will go to a team that is willing to offer a long term deal. If a team is looking for a short term rental, they'll go after Andy Pettite as their lefty starter. Wolf will be in a Dodger uniform once again. The Dodgers looked like a great team early on in the season, but broke apart due to lack of pitching and Manny being Manny.
7. Andy Pettitte - Pettitte had a great year and amazing postseason for the Yankees.
Hank: It seems simple; Yankees or retirement. Pettitte still has a year or two left in his arm and the Yankees could use him, he will sign with the Yankees.
Nakamura: Teams will be after his experience and ability, but the New York is his home.
8. Rich Harden - Harden’s market hasn’t really shown yet, but it seems vast. All teams need pitching and Harden may be cheap. Lots of teams seem to be interested including the Cubs, Twins, Red Sox, Phillies, Mariners, Nationals, and any other pitching needy team. The prediction on Harden seems difficult; it will all depend on where Lackey, Wolf, and the other top starters go.
Hank: Rich Harden will sign with the Mariners. They need some more pitching and have
Rich Harden
Nakamura: A born Canadian, he may want to be close to home. If Seattle is willing to offer a contract longer than 3 years, it's almost a sure Mariner. The ball is in Safeco and its up to them to make a move. The larger market teams will be busy with Lackey so Seattle will want to establish this deal quickly. Otherwise, the teams who lose on the Lackey sweepstakes will go after Harden and drive the price up.
9. Jose Valverde - There are a lot of closers available this offseason, but Valverde is the best of them and will get a good offer somewhere. The Astros, Tigers, Phillies, and Rays have shown interest.
Hank: Jose Valverde will sign with the Astros. Everything I’ve read has shown the Astros priority as their bullpen, which includes resigning Valverde and Hawkins.
Nakamura: The Tigers won't make any big signings because they want to dump salary elsewhere. Every team wants bullpen help, including the Yankees. If Valverde is willing to be a setup man, he will be a Yankee come opening day. If not, then he will be a Tampa Bay Ray. Troy Percival was a liability and pitcher and Wheeler just doesn't have the stuff to be a ninth inning specialist.
10. Adrian Beltre - Last time Beltre was a free agent he got a huge deal, but he won’t this time. He will have to pick his team wisely. His possible suitors will become evident later into free agency, but one team that seems to fit are the Twins. They upgraded at short already with Hardy and could greatly improve their left side power with Beltre too.
Hank: Adrian Beltre will sign with the Twins.
Nakamura: I don't know what Hank's saying. One thing is for sure. Mauer will be a Free Agent next season and will be QUITE expensive. Like the Marlins did with Hanley Ramirez, the Twins need to save up. They won't make any signing over 4 million this off season. Beltre may have to wait longer than most to see an opening at 3B. The Angels make the most sense. Out of everyone in the Free Agent market, Figgins' defense at 3B can only be replaced by Beltre. Plus, Adrian's bat will replace Vlad Guerrero's at the same time.
11. Vlad Guerrero - It seems likely that The Angels won’t even make an offer to their star, Guerrero. They don’t have that much money and will need to resign others like Figgins. Guerrero will have to sign with the AL though. Two teams that seem likely are the Orioles and
Vlad Guerrero
Hank: Guerrero will sign with the White Sox will love having his bat at DH every day.
Nakamura: Guerrero may become the player that will only signed at the right price. Don't expect a legit offer any time soon. He will go the Orioles, but the signing won't be official until Spring Training.
12. Johnny Damon - Johnny would like to come back to the Yankees, but it is unclear whether he will be brought back. If the Yankees let him go to the open market, it will be interesting to see who offers him a contract, probably not the Red Sox.
Hank: That said the Yankees probably wouldn’t go after the two big name left fielders, leaving them with Damon. Damon will sign with the Yankees for another wonderful year of a wet noodle arm in left.
Nakamura: Johnny Damon is a type A so it will be interesting to see if the Yankees offer him arbitration. His agent is Scott Boras, so one year deals, including arbitration, are unlikely. But at the same time, the market for outfielders are thin. Arbitration may be accepted due to this market. But with outfielders like Carl Crawford hitting the market next year, things won't get easier for Boras in 2011. It all come down to whether or not the Yankees offer him arbitration.
13. Hideki Matsui - This is the hardest decision for the Yankees this offseason. He was World Series MVP and has been huge for them through out his career. He has never played for another American team and it would be odd to see him somewhere else. Its easy to say he will retire, but he can still hit.
Hank: Matsui will either retire or sign with an AL team that needs a bat, possibly the Orioles or White Sox.
Nakamura: Any team that is looking for a solid bat from the left side will want Matsui. He can hit for average, power and in clutch situations. His offers may not start rolling in until Christmas, but once they do, they'll come in boxes neatly wrapped with a bow. If the Cardinals lose on Figgins, Matsui will go there. He can replace Holliday and provide some protection for Pujols.
Hideki Matsui
14. Orlando Hudson - A very good second basemen, fell off at the end of the year with the Dodgers and lost some playing time. He was a free agent last year and the market will be similar to it: weak. This time he will not end up on a winning team. Last year the Nationals wanted him, but Hudson will take what he can get.
Hank: He will sign with the Nationals as they try to upgrade up the middle.
Nakamura: The O-Dawg is a switch hitting gold glove award winner. If he is willing to play on the bench, EVERY contending team will want him. Also, if he can make a transition to SS, then even more teams will be interested. Look for the Red Sox on this one. If they can confirm that O-Dawg wants and will play SS at the level he has played 2B, he will be the SS until Lowrie/Kelly/Iglesias is ready.
15. Joel Piñeiro - A big part of the Cardinals rotation. The question is whether he will have the same type of year.
Hank: Any team that needs a solid back of the rotation starter may come calling, but in the end he will sign with the Cardinals. It would be a huge loss for them and without signing Holliday they will be able to pay him based on last years performance.
Joel Piñeiro
Nakamura: Piñeiro can keep the ball inside the park as well as anybody in the Major Leagues. He also has some experience as a reliever, so that will be an asset as well. Look for the Phillies to make a run for Piñeiro. In a hitter's ballpark, Piñeiro just might be the perfect #5 starter for them
This blog was written by HANK. (Except for Nakamura's predictions) Special thanks to HANK for writing this.
-Written by: HANK. This article is copyrighted © by Nakamura and may not be reproduced, recopied, or used in any form without permission from Nakamura
